THE LEDGER
Every claim we've tested, and the verdict
Edges can die. When a pattern fails a re-test on newer data, its verdict changes here and we post about it. Nothing is quietly removed.
| Claim | Verdict | What we found | Last tested |
|---|---|---|---|
| After five candles in a row, does the next one continue?Momentum | Edge | Slightly less than half the time (47.5% of 12,524 cases), in both halves and 11 of 12 markets. A tiny lean to reversal, too small to trade after costs. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Do round $50 gold prices act as support or resistance?Price levels | Edge | The opposite. Gold bounced off $50 levels less often than off ordinary prices (44% vs 53%), in both halves of the data. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Do the euro and pound move together all day?Correlation | Edge | Overnight they move almost in lockstep (correlation 0.90). In London hours they split (0.75), then snap back together when US data lands. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Does USDJPY rise slowly and fall fast?Extreme moves | Edge | Yes. 18 of its 22 biggest 5-minute moves were falls, and all 7 yen pairs leaned the same way in both halves of the data. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Does the first 5 minutes of each hour move more than the rest?Time of day | Edge | Yes. Found in July, then re-tested on Aug–Oct: the on-the-hour slot beat the rest of its hour on 63 of 65 days, about 16% bigger, in all 8 markets tested. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| When are markets busiest and quietest each week?Time of day | Edge | Busiest: Thursday and Wednesday 1:30pm UK and Friday 3pm UK, around 2.5× normal. Quietest: Monday evening. The same rhythm in both halves of the data. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Do brokers' overnight swap charges change?Carry & swaps | Statistic | The rates change almost daily, but the gap between what longs earn and shorts pay stays fixed (gold: 1.50–1.52% a year every month). | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Do carry trades pay?Carry & swaps | Statistic | In 9 of 11 popular carry trades, the price move outweighed the swap earned over four months. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Does GBPNZD follow the pound?Correlation | Statistic | Barely. GBPUSD explains 1% of its hourly moves; EURNZD, which has no pound in it, explains 75%. It's a kiwi chart. | 6 Nov 2026 |
| How far do prices travel to get nowhere?Statistic | Statistic | Gold ended 4.6% lower, but its 5-minute moves added up to over 1,100% of travel along the way. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| How much of FX is just the dollar?Correlation | Statistic | About 60% of all currency movement is one shared dollar move. The next biggest driver is a 'metals dial': silver, gold and the rand against CAD, JPY, CHF and NOK. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| How often do 'impossible' moves happen?Extreme moves | Statistic | Gold made 11 moves of 8 standard deviations in 4 months. A bell curve says that should happen once in 10.7 billion years. Every market we checked had several. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| How often does almost everything move at once?Macro & news | Statistic | 30 or more of our 43 markets jumped together only 4 times, all at 1:30pm UK on US inflation and jobs days. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Is a market that rises 75% of days a free lunch?Carry & swaps | Statistic | No. USDTRY rose on 60 of 80 days, but the overnight swap on a long cost more than the price gained: −3.4% net. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Which currency moves most like gold?Correlation | Statistic | The South African rand (0.60), ahead of the Australian dollar and Swedish krona. The yen and Norwegian krone are the least gold-like. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Which pair moves the most pips?Statistic | Statistic | GBPNZD, about 126 pips on a typical day. But it's only 10th as a percentage of price, because each GBPNZD pip is half the size of a EURUSD pip. | 6 Nov 2026 |
| Do big 5-minute candles get retraced?Momentum | Too weak | Slightly (53%), but not consistently enough between halves to call an edge. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Fade a 100-pip day: 20-pip target, 50-pip stop?Rule test | Too weak | On GBPNZD it won 23 of 31 (74%), just above the 71% needed to break even. Across 28 pairs it's break-even. Too close to call; re-testing as data grows. | 6 Nov 2026 |
| After 25 pips from the open, does price come back?Rule test | Noise | It returned 63% of the time, but fading it still lost money: the wins are capped and the losses aren't. | 6 Nov 2026 |
| After a big move, does a 20% pullback come before 20% more?Rule test | Noise | Coin flip across 28 pairs: 47% vs 48%. | 6 Nov 2026 |
| Do weekend gaps always fill?Gaps | Noise | No. Most gaps on the chart are a spread artefact. Measured once spreads settle, real gaps filled first 47 times and kept going 46 times: a coin flip. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Do yesterday's high and low act as support or resistance?Price levels | Noise | No more than any other price: 48.9% bounced, against 50.2% at ordinary levels. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Does Friday afternoon fade the week's move?Calendar | Noise | No measurable effect. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Does a big gold hour carry on into the next?Momentum | Noise | Coin flip: 50.7%. | 3 Nov 2026 |
| Does a breakout of the Asian range at the London open follow through?Sessions | Noise | Coin flip: 50.4% of 835 breakouts, and the same in both halves. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Does a quiet Asian session lead to a big London session?Volatility | Noise | No. London was busier than normal only 48% of the time. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Does one market lead another by a few minutes?Correlation | Noise | Only because some prices update late. Not a real lead. | 25 Jul 2026 |
| Does the dollar fall in Asian hours?Time of day | Noise | It looked like it in July, then died on new data (30 of 65 days). | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Does the morning's direction carry into New York?Sessions | Noise | No measurable effect. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Does the move into the London 4pm fix reverse afterwards?Flows & fixes | Noise | No measurable effect. | 25 Jul 2026 |
| Does the narrowest day in seven come before a big day?Volatility | Noise | No measurable effect. | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Are holiday days quieter?Calendar | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| Do Fibonacci 50% retracements hold?Price levels | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| Do big news candles get retraced within the hour?Macro & news | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| Do kiwi pairs reverse after big days more than others?Rule test | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| Do month-end flows move markets?Flows & fixes | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| Do round 00 levels in FX majors bounce or attract?Price levels | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| Do trends start at the London open?Sessions | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| Does gold react to the dollar differently by time of day?Correlation | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| Does the Tokyo fix move USDJPY?Flows & fixes | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| How do markets behave on central-bank decision days?Macro & news | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| How does the Monday open behave?Calendar | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| How far do spreads widen around US data?Costs | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| How much of the day's movement happens in a few bars?Statistic | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| Is the US open busier than the London open?Time of day | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| Which currency drove each day?Statistic | To test | Not tested yet. | — |
| Why did silver and palladium fall so much more than gold?Statistic | To test | Not tested yet. | — |